How Coronavirus is affecting the Economy and Bozeman Real Estate

by Liz Nitz

We are right now in a unique situation not seen before. I thought it prudent to research how Coronavirus is affecting the economy and Bozeman real estate market

Our lives have changed drastically in the past week; kids are home from school, trips have been cancelled, gathering places closed. We also have anxiety about what is going on out there; not only do we have anxiety about being ill, or perhaps carrying the virus to someone who may be at risk for serious complications from the virus, but we also have anxiety about the fact that our financial world has been turned upside down.  This perhaps brings back bad memories of the 2008 crash and the recession that followed.

 

So let’s try and address some of these anxieties caused by the Coronavirus outbreak:

First of all, you are doing everything right if you are following the steps recommended by the CDC.  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html  These steps are in your control and should keep you and your household healthy.  Do them and feel good about it!

At Windermere, we are fortunate enough to be backed up by a strong company with many resources.  Some of our financial and economic experts have reached out to us to explain how they see the economic impact of this and the effect on local housing market.

 

Following is a summary of likely effects of the Coronavirus to the US economy as a whole.

These were communicated by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere.

  • The Economy will contract. With the disruption to life, travel etc., we are all spending less money.
  • The Stock market has lost value as a result of the uncertainty of the situation and how long it will continue.
  • Home inventory on market will probably decrease in the next few months as people will not want others in their homes.
  • Buyers will want to take advantage of low interest rates but buying will probably decrease as well as people are uncertain about economy and some may need to wait for stock market to come back up.
  • Economists believe that towards Q3 and Q4, economy and stock market will pick back up.
  • Mortgage interest rates will stay low however.
  • Housing as a sector is well positioned to come out of this positively.
  • Banking rules that were put into place after 2008 have protected housing and made sure that the upside down equity positions held by people then do not exist anymore.
  • Inventory will be tight as households are being created but not enough housing being built overall in US.

 

An analytical look at Coronavirus and Bozeman real estate:

  • Our area is positioned well to weather this kind of storm. We will see some impacts as noted above but we will also rise out quicker than other areas of the country.
  • Why? Our fundamentals are strong.
  • Bozeman area is noted as #1 in economic strength for micropolitan areas in US. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/policoms-2018-economic-strength-rankings-for-933-communities-announced-300585848.html
  • We have had increased demand and not enough supply of homes for many years. This has meant that our median price of a single family home has gone from $329,000 in March of 2015 to $520,000 in February of 2020 and our months of supply has gone from 4.3 months in March of 2015 to 2.2 in February of 2020.
  • Our unemployment rate is very strong most recently being at 2.4% down even from a year ago when it was 3.%. The highest is has been since 2015 is 3.4%.  The interesting thing here is that US Federal Reserve puts natural unemployment at 2.5-3.5% as people move around, change jobs etc.
  • Bozeman is a unique place to live as we all know and why it attracts so many new residents each year. Our quality of life, access to the outdoor activity, ability to earn a living make it truly distinctive.  This will not change.

 

In the immediate future, what will happen?

  • We will have at least two weeks of social distancing to help prevent the spread of this virus.
  • Diagnosed cases will rise because of increased testing.
  • The strategies that the CDC and government have recommended to prevent spread will work.
  • There will be positive news about a vaccine for the future.
  • Discomfort and anxiety will continue in our lives and in the financial markets until things become certain and we have started to see decreasing cases.
  • There is a massive fiscal stimulus coming that is pointed at people and industries most affected by this.
  • Recovery will happen relatively quick as our US economy fundamentals are strong.

 

I will continue to update my blog MoveMeToMontana.com with more information and analysis as I get it.

A disclaimer – I am not an economist but am culling information from economist’s opinions and presenting factual statistics about Montana.  However, one should read this article about how Coronavirus is affecting the economy and Bozeman real estate market as my opinion.   I have curated the information and summarized it in this piece.

Stay healthy and please do what you can to help local businesses!  Shop online with them, order take out, buy gift cards.  They really need our help right now.

 

 

 

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The following homes listed below were just listed in the last 7 days. This seller’s market is hot so we keep a close eye on the latest inventory. Subscribe below for instant updates of your ideal criteria.

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2238 Baxter Lane 8, Bozeman, Montana 59718

2238 Baxter Lane 8, Bozeman, Montana 59718

2Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
970Sqft
This cozy, well-maintained, and bright second level 2 Bed, 2 Bath condo boasts it all from new LVP flooring throughout the kitchen and living room to its convenient proximity to shopping, parks, and schools. Enjoy the mountain view from the covered balcony before heading to the nearby walking trails. Easy access to the detached single car garage and private parking space.
$375,000

1755 Windrow Drive, Bozeman, Montana 59718

1755 Windrow Drive, Bozeman, Montana 59718

4Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.02Acre
2,100Sqft
Modern, single level living in Flanders Mill! This like-new home boasts soaring ceilings, an entertainer’s kitchen with quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances coupled with a thoughtful and open floor plan.
$1,099,000

5408 May Fly Street, Bozeman, Montana 59718

5408 May Fly Street, Bozeman, Montana 59718

3Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.14Acre
1,796Sqft
Don't miss out on this rare opportunity to own a single family home in Bozeman listed under $700,000 with mountain views! This well laid out, 1796 sq ft Norton Ranch home features 3 generously sized bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, large closets, and an open floor plan on the ground floor. The fenced back yard gives plenty of privacy while still getting plenty of sun year round.
$695,000

2400 W Durston Road 40, Bozeman, Montana 59715

2400 W Durston Road 40, Bozeman, Montana 59715

3Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
1,820Sqft
Appealing Willowbrook condo with updated luxury vinyl plank flooring in kitchen, dining area and living room. Full kitchen appliance package plus a washer and dryer. Gas fireplace serves dining and living room areas. Large east facing patio for enjoyment in the summer. First floor master with double closets. The two bedrooms on the second floor share a full bath. Two car garage.
$539,000

743 Loxley Drive, Bozeman, Montana 59718

743 Loxley Drive, Bozeman, Montana 59718

5Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.19Acre
2,348Sqft
Location, main level master and a 3 car tandem garage are just a few of the reasons you have to tour this property for yourself! Vaulted ceilings, five bedrooms, two and half bath with over 2,000 sq ft. this floor plan allows for a variety of options to suit your needs. Directly out the backdoor leads you to a patio with a pergola great for entertaining in the backyard.
$829,900

2526 Maiden Star Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59715

2526 Maiden Star Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59715

3Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.20Acre
2,455Sqft
The Legends home you have been waiting for! 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath, high end custom built by DK Homes. Fantastic location close to neighborhood trails that link to the M/town trail and Story Mill Park. Minutes to Main Street and Bridger Bowl. This home features an open floor plan showcasing rock fireplace with soaring vaulted ceilings.
$997,000

3801 Renova Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59718

3801 Renova Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59718

3Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.14Acre
1,242Sqft
Currently the ONLY single family home in Bozeman city limits under $600,000! This single level three bedroom, two bath home is situated in Oak Springs subdivision, directly across from the neighborhood park and within close proximity to the Gallatin County Regional Park.
$590,000

114 Michael Grove, Bozeman, Montana 59718

114 Michael Grove, Bozeman, Montana 59718

3Bedroom(s)
2Bathroom(s)
0.08Acre
1,354Sqft
Looking for a great investment, home for your college students or just a great deal in an increasingly competitive market??? Well, look no further. This townhome is 3 beds, 2 full baths, great back yard ready for your personal touch. Located conveniently to all things Bozeman, this centrally located home gives you access to wherever you need to go.
$449,900

4616 Danube Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59718

4616 Danube Lane, Bozeman, Montana 59718

4Bedroom(s)
3Bathroom(s)
0.42Acre
3,834Sqft
Highly sought after Baxter Meadows West location! If you're looking to be in the heart of Bozeman's energy, look no farther! Conveniently located just blocks from Bozeman schools, the neighborhood park, Bozeman Sports Park, Gallatin Regional Park, Dog Park, pump track & Dinosaur Park...it's a rare find! Situated on just over 0.
$1,359,800
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